The Robert Koch Institute (RKI): main building in Berlin. more
Germany’s Public Health institute RKI monitors the population’s health and wellbeing. more
The Robert Koch Institute is the German government's central institution for the identification, surveillance and prevention of infectious diseases in the Portfolio of the German Ministry of Health. more
Analyses and modeling for evidence-based health care planning
As part of the third-party funded project "KlimaNot", the impact of climate change-related weather constellations on the utilization of emergency departments (EDs) is being investigated. Climate-sensitive indicators for syndromic public health surveillance are being developed and evaluated. The indicators will be used to identify climate change-related trends over time that are relevant to public health.
The project is funded by the Innovation Committee of the German Joint Federal Committee for three years (German: Gemeinsamer Bundesausschuss, funding code 01VSF23017; funding period: January 1, 2024 - December 31, 2026). The project is led by Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg, with the Robert Koch Institute as the methodological project lead. Additionally, the University Hospital RWTH Aachen and the Hospital of the State Capital Stuttgart are involved as project partners.
The Robert Koch Institute covers the public health surveillance objective within the project. For this purpose, indicators are identified that may be relevant for the surveillance of climate-sensitive ED visits. The indicators are developed based on retrospective analyses of data from the AKTIN Emergency Department Data Registry, linked with weather data. For each indicator under study, a syndrome definition is created, considering the chief complaint (CEDIS codes) and the ED diagnosis (ICD-10-GM codes). The syndrome definitions are then validated on three levels: First, a comparison of the results with weather data over time is conducted. Secondly, for internal validation, cases identified on basis of the syndrome definition are checked for their inpatient discharge diagnoses. Thirdly, for external validation, comparisons of the results with existing evidence, such as the German heat-related mortality surveillance, are used. Subsequently to the successful validation, a strategy for the integration of the indicators into routine ED surveillance will be developed.
Additionally, the project partners investigate regional differences in climate-sensitive ED visits and the influence of climate change on specific age groups. Based on the results of these group-specific use cases, predictive modeling will be conducted, to assess the utilization of EDs considering various weather conditions, in order to understand future population needs and plan health care accordingly.
Date: 11.04.2024
