Exploring the potential impact of immune deficiency and antiviral treatment on SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence with SIMPLICITY

Short description of the project

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic created an unprecedented international crisis, killing millions of people, putting great pressure onto public health services (often pushing them to their breaking point) and forcing the world to grind to a temporary halt to try to contain it. The pandemic was characterized by periodic surges in new infections driven by new variants of the virus that emerged through different evolutionary processes. In this project, we aim at investigating the evolutionary mechanisms underlying the emergence of new virus variants, especially the role of immunocompromised patients and antiviral treatments. We are doing so using a “Bottom-up” approach, essentially meaning that we are not studying the data collected during the pandemic per se but rather trying to reproduce it by modelling the basic biological mechanisms we believe to be underlying the process of evolution and surge of new variants of concern. The importance of understanding such processes is underlined by the great societal and economic impact of new waves of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, which should be prevented as much as possible. By gaining a better understanding of the mechanisms driving such processes, we will be better prepared to deal with the current and eventual future pandemics.

The project addresses the following “Essential Public Health Functions” (EPHS):

• #2: Investigate, diagnose, and address health problems and hazards affecting the population, by investigating the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the evolution of new variants.
• #9: Improve and innovate public health functions through ongoing evaluation, research, and continuous quality improvement.
  Creating a model that enables studying the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 (potentially adaptable to new viruses), we will improve the capacity of public health institutions to understand viral evolution and thus create more efficient prevention policies.

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