As we get older, there is an increase of the individual risk of illness and of the risk of multimorbidity, which means having multiple chronic diseases at the same time.

In an ageing population, age-related chronic diseases will occur more and more frequently. As a consequence, the disease spectrum will change, and this will need to be managed by the health system.

An additional characteristic of demographic change is the decrease in population in various regions of Germany. This is caused primarily by migration from these regions.

The scientists at Robert Koch Institute are researching the impact of demographic change. The research focuses on analyses of how the spectrum of diseases and causes of death are changing.

Building on these results, predictions on future trends are made. On the one hand, the frequency and rate of new cases (prevalence and incidence) of different disease patterns are calculated, e.g. for cancer and stroke. On the other hand, predictions are made on how many hospital treatments will be required for various groups of diseases.

In addition, the consequences of population decline on healthcare for different population groups are being examined.

Further information

RKI publications server edoc: Publications in the Journal of Health Monitoring

Research projects, publications and reports on the German website